40% — that is the chance Lionel Messi walks away with the Ballon d'Or once again. Ever since Argentina came from nowhere to beat England and book their place in the World Cup final, the numbers on Polymarket, the prediction market where punters trade on how events will turn out, have moved sharply his way.
"Argentina can do anything," Messi said himself, and the market agrees. He now sits clear at the top, well ahead of Lamine Yamal on 29% and Harry Kane on 14%. What he did on the pitch is showing up in the figures. The legend is back.
While Lionel Scaloni insists "We are unique," the beaten contenders are picking over their own mistakes. Kylian Mbappé, whose odds have slid to 2%, offered no excuses. "With such a game we didn't deserve to go to the final," he admitted. That contrast only strengthens the Argentine's grip on another slice of history.
According to the bookmakers, the top five now looks like this:
1. Lionel Messi — 40%
2. Lamine Yamal — 29%
3. Harry Kane — 14%
4. Ousmane Dembélé — 3%
5. Kylian Mbappé — 2%
