The season has been defined by one uncompromising fight inside Mercedes. Kimi Antonelli built a 68-point lead by winning five Grands Prix in a row, only for George Russell to claw some of it back in recent races. Then came the heavy crash at Spa, and the Briton is now 50 points down. If Antonelli keeps this momentum in Hungary, Russell's title bid is effectively over. Turning around a gap like that would take a comeback to rival Sebastian Vettel's in 2012.
Mercedes have taken every pole this season, yet Ferrari are still the closest challengers. Their main weakness is straight-line speed, and that matters far less through the low- and medium-speed corners of the Hungaroring. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc both have strong records over one lap here, which gives the Italian team real grounds for optimism.
Unlike Spa and Silverstone, the Hungaroring is a more conventional test. Drivers complained about energy deployment in Belgium, but Budapest is an energy-rich circuit, and the focus moves from power-unit management to chassis efficiency and aerodynamics. That should let Red Bull show their true pace.
The 2026 season has been a disaster for Aston Martin, who have spent most of it at the back of the grid. Still, the British team bring a heavily upgraded chassis to Hungary. Mike Krack expects the package to put them back in the midfield fight and end a six-month run of underperformance.
The Hungarian Grand Prix is traditionally the peak of silly season. Max Verstappen is expected to stay at Red Bull, but several seats are still open for 2027. Fernando Alonso's future is unclear with his contract up at the end of 2026, and the identity of Haas's second driver is still being argued over, with a number of young candidates in line to partner Oliver Bearman.
Hungary will decide whether Mercedes keep their grip on the season or whether the paddock goes into the summer break with the balance of power shifting.
