According to 10,000 simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, Barcelona have a 72.0% chance of beating Aston Villa. Hansi Flick's side have failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 consecutive Champions League matches, although they did hammer Alavés 6-1 in LaLiga. Lamine Yamal's numbers stand out as well: 12 goals and 11 assists this season, plus a record 13 Champions League assists for a teenager. Aston Villa manager Unai Emery, by contrast, has won only three of his 30 meetings with the Catalans, a 10% win rate that is the lowest of his career. The tactical duel carries extra weight for the Spaniard, whose return to Spotify Camp Nou revives painful memories of the 6-1 defeat he suffered there with Paris Saint-Germain in 2017.
In this season's competition, Aston Villa sit second in the Champions League table with three wins from three, including a 6-0 rout of Fenerbahçe and a 3-1 victory over Viking. Emiliano Buendía has scored in each of his last four European matches, while Nicolas Jackson struck six times in October. Barcelona, on the other hand, have serious problems in defence, with Eric García, Jules Koundé and Xavi Espart all injured. The clubs last met in the 1982 European Super Cup, played in January 1983, when Aston Villa won the two-legged tie 3-1 on aggregate.
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